Imagine the call of a lifetime.
It’s a friend of yours that’s stumbled upon the holy grail of the golf world.
An invite to play Augusta National in Augusta Georgia.
And now your friend has invited you to make up the foursome.
Every golfer has this dream.
And, every golfer has wondered: What would I shoot at Augusta?
And this devolves into: What would I shoot in the Masters?
Because, the real golf dream isn’t to just play Augusta.
The real dream is to play in the Masters.
That is the pinnacle of golf.
Period.
So what would I shoot in the Masters?
Let’s take a step by step scientific look at what an amateur like me would shoot in the Masters.
Don’t worry though, we have developed a calculator for you to use to see what you would shoot as well.
Let’s get started.
Understanding the Beast: Course Rating (CR) and Slope Rating Explained
Before we dive into my hypothetical Masters adventure, let’s break down what Course Rating (CR) and Slope Rating mean.
Course rating estimates the number of strokes an expert golfer (scratch handicap) should take to complete the course.
Slope Rating assesses the relative difficulty for bogey golfers compared to scratch golfers.
Higher numbers in both indicate a more challenging course.
In essence, they’re the golf world’s way of saying, “You’re in for a wild ride.”
The Augusta National Course Rating Conundrum
Armed with my GHIN Handicap Index of 1.6 (it varies from week to week), I took a swing at estimating what my scorecard might look like at Augusta National, thanks to insights from Dean Knuth.
Because Augusta National doesn’t allow their course to be rated by the USGA we have to guess at what it is.
Knuth, an experienced course rater, provided CR and slope estimates based on extensive observations during practice rounds.
According to his analysis, Augusta is a beast with a CR of 78.1 and a Slope of 137 from the Masters tees.
First Glance Estimations
If we simply add my handicap index to the course rating it looks like I would shoot 80 and might even be able to sneak in a 79.
But wait a minute, this just doesn’t sound right. We’re talking about Augusta National and it’s the Masters.
Plus, what would the USGA say about this crude estimate?
They probably wouldn’t like it since according to the USGA this is how to calculate your target score:
“Your Handicap Index measures your demonstrated ability when you’re playing well – so to play to your handicap takes a solid performance. Generally, players shoot their target score about 15-20 percent of the time and can expect to shoot 2-5 strokes higher in most rounds.”
Given this information I’d expect to shoot around 83 … ish.
Not quite and I doubt it.
In all honesty, it’s going to be tough to break 90.
Let’s take a look a the chart below and see if we can refine this estimate.
The Calculations Behind the Curtain
| Description | Calculation / Note | Value |
|---|---|---|
| GHIN Handicap Index | Based on 8 best scores out of the previous 20 scores | 1.6 |
| Course Rating (Masters Tees) | The difficulty of the course for a scratch golfer | 78.1 |
| Slope Rating (Masters Tees) | The difficulty adjustment for a bogey golfer | 137 |
| Handicap Strokes (Masters Tees) | hdcp x CR / 113 + ( CR – par) 1.6 × 137/113​ + (78.1 – 72) | 8 |
| Score if Plays to Handicap | 72 (Par) + 8 (Handicap Strokes) | 80 |
| Typical Score Low | 80 + 2 | 82 |
| Typical Score High | 80 + 5 | 85 |
| Tournament Score | Typical Score High + 3 strokes for tournament pressure | 88 |
Based on this chart the most likely score for me is an 88.
In the Masters.
I don’t believe it.
Every year there are a handful of pros that shoot high 70s and low 80s.
They’re light years better than me.
Light years.
Plus, I’ve watched the Masters every year on TV since the mid 70s.
There’s one thing of which I am certain.
Augusta National during the Masters is impossible for us mortals.
Impossible.
An Amateur Golfer’s Score at the Masters Reconsidered
Consider the unique challenges of Augusta National.
First, there are the greens; they’re super fast and undulating and not especially accounted for by Dean Knuth’s analysis.
There’s also the unparalleled pressure of “I’m playing in the Masters!”
It’s reasonable to speculate a higher difficulty.
If we were to adjust the slope to 155 and increase the course rating by 2, reflecting these factors, the impact on tournament performance would be noticeable.
Let’s revise the tournament chart with these adjustments:
| Description | Original Value | Adjusted Value (Speculative) |
|---|---|---|
| GHIN Handicap Index | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Course Rating (Masters Tees) | 78.1 | 80.1 |
| Slope Rating (Masters Tees) | 137 | 155 |
| Handicap Strokes (Masters Tees) | 8 | 10 |
| Score if Plays to Handicap | 80 | 82 |
| Typical Score Low | 82 | 84 |
| Typical Score High | 85 | 87 |
| Tournament Score | 88 | 94 |
Adding 7 strokes for MASTERS Tournament pressure, vice 3, results in a tournament score of 94.
This seems much more plausible.
Could I shoot better.
Certainly.
A stretch goal would be to try and break 90 and not get flustered if things are not working out.
What Would You Shoot at the Masters?
The Journey of a Lifetime (and a Lot of Lost Balls)
Imagine stepping onto those hallowed grounds, armed with nothing but a set of clubs and an overly optimistic view of your golfing skills.
My calculated journey through Augusta would likely be filled with awe, frustration, and an egregious number of lost balls, 4 putts, duffs and hilarity.
But hey, it’s the experience that counts, right?
Playing Augusta might remain a dream, but it’s a fun exercise to see how I’d stack up.
Lessons Learned and Balls Lost
In conclusion, while my actual chances of playing at the Masters are slim (let’s be real, more like none), this exercise has given me a newfound respect for the pros who navigate Augusta with grace (and far fewer strokes than I would need).
Plus, it’s always good for a laugh to dream big and score… well, let’s just say “creatively.”
So, there you have it—a lighthearted look at an amateur’s shot at the Masters, with a side of math and a dash of humility.
Remember, golf is as much about enjoying the journey as it is about the final score.
Find Out What You Would Shoot On Other Famous Courses
What Would I Shoot At Pebble Beach Golf Links
What Would I Shoot At Kiawah Island Golf Resort
What Would I Shoot At Bethpage State Park Black Course
What Would I Shoot At Erin Hills
What Would I Shoot At Oakmont Country Club
What Would I Shoot At The Masters: An Amateurs Guide
What Would I Shoot At Whistling Straits
What Would I Shoot At Torrey Pines
What Would I Shoot At Southern Hills Country Club
What Would I Shoot At Merion Golf Club East Course
What Would I Shoot At Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
What Would I Shoot At TPC Sawgrass
What Would I Shoot At St Andrews Links Old Course
What Would I Shoot At Turnberry
What Would I Shoot At Royal Portrush Dunluce Course
What Would I Shoot At Pine Valley
What Would I Shoot At Royal Melbourne
What Would I Shoot At Winged Foot
What Would I Shoot At Carnoustie Golf Links
What Would I Shoot At Muirfield
(Data and insights about Augusta National’s CR and Slope Ratings were inspired by Dean Knuth’s thorough analysis and observations during practice rounds.)
About the author: Paul is a lifelong golfer on a journey to a scratch handicap. He jokes that his golf handicap is short putts but in reality it hovers between a 1 and a 3.
